Tensions Run High in Kosovo’s Politics: The Thaci-Haradinaj Clash

Tensions Run High in Kosovo’s Politics: The Thaci-Haradinaj Clash

Political divisions are running deeper in Kosovo, as President Hashim Thaci, the founder of the ruling Democratic Party of Kosovo, and Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, leader of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, formally a coalition partner to the Kosovo Democrats, are pitting against each other. As things stand now, Thaci is loosening his grip on power, while Haradinaj and his allies are getting stronger. The prime minister has masterfully exploited the situation surrounding Kosovo’s normalization talks with Serbia, resulting in a rise in support among the broader electorate.

Haradinaj had first renounced a role in the dialogue with Serbia, but then used a series of steps available to him as a prime minister to snatch the rains out of Thaci’s hands. He pulled off a deal to set up a team of negotiators that would include the president’s political opponents, and his cabinet decided to introduce a 100-percent tariff on imports from Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The decision brought the talks to a complete halt, following an announcement by the Serbian government that it would not go back to the negotiating table until the new customs dues were withdrawn or suspended.

Apparently, Haradinaj holds the keys to the negotiations with Serbia, since a decision to suspend the new taxes is entirely in his hands. The move has been strongly supported at home, by Kosovo’s nationalists in particular. What they see in the move is determination to defy Serbia. Haradinaj continues to insist that the 100-percent tariff will remain in place until he’s guaranteed that the talks with Serbia will result in mutual recognition. Depending on their needs, other leaders in Kosovo, including the Kosovo speaker, Kadri Veseli of the Democratic Party of Kosovo, support Haradinaj’s strategy, either openly or secretly, but they are always prepared to key their needs to the requirements of the Big Five, the United States in particular.

Thaci cannot afford a strong reaction to the government move, aware that it enjoys great support among the electorate. He can only watch helplessly while his key political opponent is expanding his clout over relations with Serbia, which is a crucial issue for Kosovo, completely unable to counter the move properly. The West insists that the customs dues be revoked or suspended, but Haradinaj persists, probably believing that the reaction to his non-compliance will not be too harsh.

Demarcation

Thaci and Haradinaj are on the opposite ends of the spectrum as to how the relations with Serbia should be handled, too. Thaci had suggested earlier that demarcation, i.e. a territory swap, could solve the problem. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic openly supported the idea, and the U.S. was inclined to accept it as well. Europe, on the other hand, France and Germany in particular, criticized it in the strongest terms. Haradinaj jumped at the opportunity, advocating fervently the inviolability of borders. In other words, not a modicum of consensus can be reached on demarcation at this point, and the concept is losing importance.

Demarcation is as easy to capitalize on politically as the notorious tariff has been. It turns out that it has been far easier to convince a majority of voters not to give up an inch of Kosovo’s territory than to give a part of the territory (the Serb-dominated areas in the north) in exchange for a part of Serbia (the Albanian-majority municipalities in Serbia’s south). In a word, the territory exchange seems as blurry and risky an idea as it gets, as opposed to the crystal clear concept of keeping the existing borders in place.

Thaci has been forced to move back and admit that a border change is off the agenda. He was unable to get clear guarantees from the West that demarcation, that is, the exchange of territories, would be carried out. Instead, the West had been sending messages that any agreement reached by Belgrade and Pristina would be accepted, which wasn’t enough for Thaci to promote his idea successfully at home. Shortly thereafter a summit in Bonn failed and a Paris conference on Kosovo was cancelled, putting the entire process on hold.

Another thing that created a bad impression in the eyes of local voters was Thaci’s contradictory statements as to the way the relations with Serbia should be handled. Until early this week, the president had been saying that the border “corrections” were off the agenda, only to state shortly after that he was happy that the concept received broad support. The latter was probably the result of a public opinion poll in Kosovo, but observers in Pristina say it is hard to tell if a majority of voters actually supported demarcation.

Early Polls

For months now, the Kosovo parliament has been sitting in special sessions only, discussing the themes dictated by the opposition, while four regular sessions, including more than 40 items on the parliamentary agenda, are yet to be completed. The Kosovo government keeps working, rather successfully at a glance, but it makes questionable decisions, clashing with the existing legislation, as the European Commission has warned in its progress report for Kosovo. The ambassadors of the Big Five, the U.S. and British diplomats in particular, have criticized the work of the authorities in Kosovo with increasing openness.

The ruling coalition doesn’t hold a majority sufficient for the passage of laws and reports by independent bodies accountable to the Kosovo parliament. International financial and other treaties between Kosovo, other states or the European Union (EU) are passed smoothly. All in all, the existing divides and tensions may lead to early polls, but it is difficult to say if such a decision could be made in the foreseeable future.

If Kosovo decides to have an early parliamentary election, internal differences will certainly grow and room for a compromise in the normalization talks will be narrowed, at least until a new government and a new parliament have been installed. Thaci would use his presidency in the campaign, but he is unlikely to restore his previous standing. Regular parliamentary elections are to take place in 2021. The president of Kosovo is elected by the parliament, and Thaci was elected to a five-year term in 2016.

Upon his inauguration, Thaci renounced the leading post in the Democratic Party of Kosovo, and was replaced by Kadri Veseli, the party’s true power-holder. One of Veseli’s decisions was to release of duty all party officials who had been indicted, regardless of the fact that the other coalition partners hadn’t done the same, nor intended to do so. The move might bring about some short-term political gain, but it will weaken the party in the long run, because it was precisely the people indicted on different grounds who brought thousands of votes to the Kosovo Democrats in the last elections.