The European Commission predicts GDP Decline for Western Balkan Countries

European Commission

The EC predicts the smallest GDP decline for Serbia

This year, Serbia will achieve the smallest decline in GDP in relation to all member states and countries of the Western Balkans region, it is stated in the conclusion of the latest economic forecast of the European Commission.

The projected GDP decline for Serbia, by the end of this year, is 1.8 percent.

This is an improvement compared to the forecast, when the Commission projected a GDP decline in our country of 4.1 percent in 2020.

For 2021, the Commission for Serbia forecasts a growth of 4.8 percent of GDP, while in 2022 it expects an increase by 3.8.

The EC estimates that Serbia’s public debt in 2020 will amount to 61.5 percent of GDP, while a reduced amount of 60.7 percent is predicted for 2021, and 59.6 percent in 2022.

In Brussels, they expect the unemployment rate this year to be 9.3 percent in Serbia, 9.6 percent in 2021, and up to nine percent in 2022.

EC Predicts Montenegrin Economy will See Stronger Recovery in 2021 

Out of all of the EU membership candidate states, the European Commission expects that Montenegro will suffer the highest economic downturn and Turkey the lowest this year. 

Montenegro, however, will also experience the strongest recovery in 2021. 

The EC has forecast that the Montenegrin economy will shrink by 14.3% in 2021, followed by 6.8% growth in 2021. Serbia’s GDP will shed 1.8% in 2020, followed by 4.8% growth in 2021, CdM has reported. 

The report says that after a relatively mild first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Montenegro has been hit by a much stronger second wave, which has affected not only tourism and retailing but also the creation of jobs via investments and public finances. 

The gradual recovery of Montenegro’s economy is expected in 2021 and 2022 and it will be driven by planned investments in tourism and energy, as well as construction.

EC Forecasts 5.7% Economic Downturn for Croatia 

The European Commission (EC) has predicted that the Croatian economy will shrink by 9.6% this year, followed by an increase of 5.7% next year. 

It also said that the Croatian economy was likely to bounce back in 2022. 

“We expect the Croatian economy to contract strongly in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Partial recovery, owing to private consumption and investment is expected in 2021 but it is not expected to reach the pre-crisis level before 2022,” the EC was quoted as saying by the Index.hr website. 

In its previous summer forecast on July 7, the EC predicted that the Croatian economy would shrink by 10.8% this year, followed by a somewhat faster growth rate of 7.5% next year. 

In its spring economic forecast released on May 6, which was the first economic forecast after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the EC predicted that Croatia’s GDP would drop by 9.1% this year, followed by 7.5% growth next year, the media has reported. 

Uncertainty and travel limitations have affected exports, including tourism, the EC said, adding that the labor market would recover slowly, and that after a sudden drop, public finances would improve in 2021 and 2022, but that it expected the deficit in Croatia’s balance of payment’s current account to persist in 2020 and 2021.

EC Expects North Macedonia’s Economy to grow in 2021 

The EC expects North Macedonia’s economy to drop by 4.9% in 2020, followed by 3.8% growth in 2021, the media has reported. 

According to the EC, the country will fully recover from the pandemic in 2022, as a result of domestic demand.

Albanian Economy will Not recover from Covid-19 before 2022. 

The European Commission has predicted that Albania’s GDP in 2020 will drop by 6.8%, followed by 3.7% growth in 2021. 

The EC said that the pandemic and the accompanying restrictions had led the Albanian economy into a deep recession despite good results in the sectors of agriculture, and repair work after an earthquake in November 2019. 

The EC thinks that the Albanian economy will return to the level of 2019 in 2022, but state finances will probably not reach the pre-crisis deficit and debt levels.