The World Bank has estimated that the Montenegrin economy will experience the biggest recession in the Western Balkan region this year.
That forecast is mainly due to the country’s high dependence on tourism, and WB also estimated that the already high level of public debt would reach a peak of 98% of GDP in 2021, while the construction of a second section of the national highway would pose a great risk to its sustainability.
WB warns that public debt servicing is a great burden on Montenegrin finances and has calculated that over the next two years, the said servicing will require about 745 million, or 15% of GDP.
Economic recovery will depend on tourism, but the coronavirus pandemic is a serious risk, because if it is still present next summer it will again have negative consequences on the tourist season. WB forecasts that the first section of the highway will be finished in 2022.
A new deadline for completing the first section of the highway has not been arranged, except for an announcement from the government that it expects the job to be done by mid-2021, daily Vijesti reports.
In early October, the WB forecast that the Montenegrin economy would drop 12.4%, as well as that the public debt would equal 93% of GDP at the end of the year.
In the June forecasts for this year, it predicted a 6.8% decrease in Montenegro’s GDP, the same as the government. The IMF recently estimated the fall of Montenegro’s GDP at 12%.