IMF’s Forecast for Serbia: Highest Inflation in Region, Significant Growth Deceleration

IMF (Shutterstock)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast a significant deceleration of Serbia’s economic growth in 2025, with predictions that place it in the lower part of the list of countries of the former Yugoslavia, the web-site Nedeljnik.rs reported on Oct. 16.

In the World Economic Outlook report for October, the IMF predicted that Serbia’s gross domestic product (GDP) would reach 2.4 percent in 2025, significantly less than the 3.9 percent from 2024. Serbia’s 2.4 percent forecast is lower than that for Montenegro (3.2), Croatia (3.1) and North Macedonia (three percent).

Thus, Serbia is at the same level as Bosnia and Herzegovina, with only Slovenia registering slower growth, with the predicted rate of 1.1 percent, but it is at a far higher level of development. As for inflation, Serbia’s predicted 4.6 percent in 2025 is higher than in all other former Yugoslav countries – Montenegro (4.1), Croatia (4.4), Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia (3.5 percent each) and Slovenia (1.1).

Such predictions come in the context of global risks the IMF identified as “prolonged trade policy uncertainty, shocks to labor supply and fiscal vulnerability,” the Nedeljnik.rs reported. In such surroundings, the Fund recommends the implementation of “credible, predictable and sustainable economic policies” as crucial for restoring confidence. All countries, including Serbia, are urged to restore fiscal buffers and ensure the sustainability of debt.