Vienna Think Tank: Zero Growth for Serbian GDP if Ukrainian War Lasts Until End of Year

Branimir Jovanovic (YouTube print screen)

If the Ukrainian War fails to end by the new year, Serbia will have achieved zero GDP growth with an inflation rate of 14 percent in 2022, said Branimir Jovanovic of the non-profit Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw).

In an interview for BETA, Jovanovic – an economist specializing in Balkan countries – said that the above-mentioned scenario is the less favorable of two which the Institute has developed for Serbia. The more optimistic scenario is hinged upon the war ending soon and would entail a GDP growth of 3.6 percent and a 10 percent inflation rate.

According to Jovanovic, price controls on basic foods are a good way for Serbia to combat the current crisis.

Jovanovic explained that in November 2021, prior to the price freeze, Serbia had an inflation rate of 7.5 percent – which, at the time, was the highest in the region – while in May of this year Serbia’s inflation was 10.4 percent, which was among the lowest in the region.