European Commission Forecasts Continued Strong GDP Growth for Serbia, Sanctions against National Oil Corporation among Risks

European Commission/PHOTO/Guillaume Périgois

The European Commission (EC) predicts that Serbia’s economy will continue to grow strongly, but also highlights risks, both at home and abroad, including potential U.S. sanctions against the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS).

According to the Commission’s economic forecasts published on May 19, Serbia is projected to report a GDP growth rate of 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.8 percent in 2026. Serbia’s 2024 growth rate was 3.9 percent.

The Commission expects Serbia’s economic growth to continue to be driven largely by domestic demand thanks to rising investments and private consumption. Regarding risks, the Commission has noted that demand in the countries that are Serbia’s main trading partners in the Eurozone, especially Germany, remains weak. It also states in the report that economic sentiment steadily worsened from January to April due to months of political unrest and protests.

The general estimate is that foreign direct investments could suffer as investors’ confidence has dwindled due to political uncertainty, while implementation of public investment drives could be delayed. Additional challenges for GDP growth are posed by global trade tensions and potential sanctions against NIS.

As for other Western Balkans states, Albania is expected to report the highest GDP growth rate of 3.6 percent in 2025, Montenegro and North Macedonia are likely to reach three percent each, and Bosnia and Herzegovina two percent.